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Canada · Official update
Market Participants Survey—Third Quarter of 2026
Bank of Canada6 min read
Results of the third quarter 2026 survey conducted from September 23 to October 1, 2026.
The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 25 financial market participants. You can view the latest quarterly data here.
Economic scenario
1.1 What is your forecast for real GDP growth (year-over-year percentage change) in Canada?
| GDP growth in Canada (year-over-year % change) | ||
|---|---|---|
| End of 2026 (n = 24) | End of 2027 (n = 24) | |
| 25th percentile of responses | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Median of responses | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 75th percentile of responses | 1.7 | 1.9 |
Note: Respondents were asked to calculate the four-quarter (year-over-year) growth rate based on the end of Q4. GDP is gross domestic product.
1.2 What is the probability of real GDP growth in Canada being in each of the following ranges at the end of 2026 and 2027?
| GDP growth in Canada, average probability in each range (%) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Range of GDP growth | End of 2026 (n = 23) | End of 2027 (n = 22) |
| Below 0.00% | 2.1 | 5.8 |
| 0.01% to 1.00% | 18.1 | 16.3 |
| 1.01% to 2.00% | 60.2 | 44.2 |
| 2.01% to 3.00% | 17.2 | 28.0 |
| 3.01% to 4.00% | 2.0 | 4.5 |
| 4.01% to 5.00% | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Above 5.01% | 0.1 | 0.4 |
Note: GDP is gross domestic product.
1.3 Please identify up to three upside risks to your growth outlook for Canada.
| Top upside risks | |
|---|---|
| Share of respondents (%)* (n = 25) | |
| Easing of trade tensions | 88 |
| Larger-than-expected fiscal stimulus | 72 |
| Decreasing geopolitical risks | 36 |
* Share of respondents who selected each risk
1.4 Please identify up to three downside risks to your growth outlook for Canada.
| Top downside risks | |
|---|---|
| Share of respondents (%)* (n = 25) | |
| Increase in trade tensions | 88 |
| Tighter monetary policy | 52 |
| Tightening of global financial conditions | 52 |
* Share of respondents who selected each risk
1.5 How would you characterize the current level of Canadian GDP relative to potential output?
| Characterization of output gap | |
|---|---|
| Percentage of respondents (%) (n = 24) | |
| Positive output gap (current GDP is greater than potential GDP) | 0.0 |
| Negative output gap (current GDP is less than potential GDP) | 92.0 |
| No output gap (current GDP is equal to potential GDP) | 8.0 |
Note: GDP is gross domestic product. The output gap is the difference between the current level of Canadian GDP and the level of potential output.
1.6 What is the probability of the Canadian economy being in a recession in each of the following individual time frames?*
| Probability of a recession in Canada (%) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In 0 to 6 months (n = 20) | In 6 to 12 months (n = 21) | In 12 to 18 months (n = 20) | In 18 to 24 months (n = 20) | |
| 25th percentile of responses | 9 | 15 | 20 | 20 |
| Median of responses | 13 | 20 | 23 | 20 |
| 75th percentile of responses | 30 | 30 | 25 | 26 |
* A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by real gross domestic product.
1.7 What is your forecast for annual total CPI inflation in Canada?
| Headline CPI inflation in Canada (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| End of 2026 (n = 24) | End of 2027 (n = 24) | 5 years ahead (n = 23) | |
| 25th percentile of responses | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Median of responses | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 75th percentile of responses | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Note: Respondents were asked to estimate, based on the end of Q4, the four-quarter (year-over-year) consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Canada.
1.8 What is the probability of annual total CPI inflation in Canada being in each of the following ranges at the end of 2026 and 2027?
| Annual CPI inflation in Canada, average probability in each range (%) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Range of CPI inflation | End of 2026 (n = 23) | End of 2027 (n = 23) |
| Below 0.00% | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| 0.01% to 1.00% | 1.3 | 8.2 |
| 1.01% to 2.00% | 6.6 | 36.8 |
| 2.01% to 3.00% | 43.7 | 42.7 |
| 3.01% to 4.00% | 42.5 | 10.1 |
| Above 4.01% | 5.9 | 0.7 |
Note: CPI is the consumer price index.
Monetary policy
2.1 What is your forecast for the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate?
| Policy interest rate (%) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th percentile of responses | Median of responses | 75th percentile of responses | Number of responses | |
| 2026 | ||||
| October | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 25 |
| December | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 25 |
| 2027 | ||||
| January | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 24 |
| March | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.81 | 24 |
| April | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 24 |
| June | 2.69 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 24 |
| July | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 24 |
| September | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 24 |
| Q4 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 23 |
| 2028 | ||||
| Q1 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 23 |
| Q2 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 23 |
| Q3 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 23 |
| Q4 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 23 |
2.2 What is the probability that the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate at the end of 2026 and 2027 will be different from your forecasted rate for December 2026 and 2027Q4 by each of the following amounts?
| Difference from forecasted policy interest rate in Canada, average probability in each range (%) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Difference from forecast | December 2026 (n = 21) | 2027Q4 (n = 20) |
| -75bps or more | 0.5 | 3.1 |
| -50bps | 4.0 | 8.1 |
| -25bps | 13.8 | 15.1 |
| No difference | 52.3 | 37.1 |
| +25bps | 24.7 | 21.5 |
| +50bps | 4.6 | 12.0 |
| +75bps or more | 0.2 | 3.2 |
2.3 How would you describe the balance of risks around your forecast for the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate?
| Balance of risks | |
|---|---|
| Percentage of respondents (%) (n = 23) | |
| Skewed to a higher path | 52.0 |
| Skewed to a lower path | 0.0 |
| Risks are broadly balanced | 48.0 |
2.4 What is your estimate of the long-term nominal neutral rate in Canada?
| Nominal neutral rate (%) (n = 23) | |
|---|---|
| 25th percentile of responses | 2.75 |
| Median of responses | 2.75 |
| 75th percentile of responses | 3.00 |
Financial assets
3. According to your economic scenario, what is your point estimate for the following?
| Point estimates | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th percentile of responses | Median of responses | 75th percentile of responses | Number of responses | |
| End of 2026 | ||||
| 2-year Canadian bond yield | 3.10% | 3.20% | 3.38% | 20 |
| 5-year Canadian bond yield | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.65% | 20 |
| 10-year Canadian bond yield | 3.85% | 3.90% | 4.00% | 21 |
| 30-year Canadian bond yield | 4.18% | 4.25% | 4.28% | 19 |
| Oil price per barrel (West Texas Intermediate) | US$85 | US$90 | US$95 | 23 |
| Canadian dollar | US$0.71 | US$0.72 | US$0.72 | 22 |
| End of 2027 | ||||
| 2-year Canadian bond yield | 2.90% | 3.10% | 3.35% | 19 |
| 5-year Canadian bond yield | 3.25% | 3.45% | 3.75% | 19 |
| 10-year Canadian bond yield | 3.50% | 3.80% | 4.00% | 20 |
| 30-year Canadian bond yield | 3.89% | 4.03% | 4.25% | 18 |
| Oil price per barrel (West Texas Intermediate) | US$72 | US$75 | US$80 | 23 |
| Canadian dollar | US$0.73 | US$0.74 | US$0.75 | 22 |
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Source & attribution
Source: Bank of Canada. Text reproduced in DailyMIQ’s reading format. Images, charts, navigation, and media contact details are omitted. The source does not endorse DailyMIQ. The original is available free of charge.
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